The single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting....

The prevalent tendancy to underweight or ignore distributional information is perhaps the major source of error in forecasting.  Planners should therefore make every effort to frame the forecasting problem so as to facilitate ultilizing all the distrubutional information that is available.

This may be the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting through improved methods.  Using such distributional information from other ventures similar to that being forecasted is called taking an "outside view" and is the cure to the planning fallacy.

Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow (Chapter 23)

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Overly optimist forecasts...

...overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of a project are found everywhere.  Amos and I coined the term planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that

• are unrealistically close to the best-case scenarios.
• could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
  

Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow (Chapter 23)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141033576?ie=UTF8&camp=3194&creative=21330&creativeASIN=0141033576&linkCode=shr&tag=theginmum-21&qid=1351590984&sr=8-1

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When we were eventually exposed to the outside view...

This is a common pattern: people who have information about an individual case rarely feel the need to know the statistics of the class to which the case belongs.

When we were eventually exposed to the outside view, we collectively ignored it.

Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow (Chapter 23)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141033576?ie=UTF8&camp=3194&creative=21330&creativeASIN=0141033576&linkCode=shr&tag=theginmum-21&qid=1351590984&sr=8-1

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Thinking

I am fond of thing about a problem over and over - Taiichi Ohno, The Toyota Production System
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Use-case Slice

A use-case slice is one or more stories selected from a use case to form a work item that is of clear value to the customer.

Ivar Jacobson - Use-Case 2.0

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Lightweight Requirements

Lightweight requirements are incredibly effective when there is close collaboration with the users and the development team can get personal explanations of the requirements and timely answers to any questions that arise.  If this kind of collaboration is not possible, because the users are not available, then the requirements will require more detail and will inevitably become more heavyweight.

Ivar Jacobson - Use-Case 2.0

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No 'one size fits all'

Unfortunately there is no 'one size fits all' solution to the challenges of software development; different teams and different situations require different styles and different levels of detail. Regardless of which practices an techniques you select you need to make sure that they are adaptable enough to meet the ongoing needs of the team.

Ivar Jacobson - Use-Case 2.0

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Choose the most central slice

Choose the most central slice that travels through the entire concept from end to end, or as close to that as possible.  Estimate it as a team (estimates don't have to be "right", they're just estimates) and start to build it.

Ivar Jacobson - Use-Case 2.0

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Slices

The system should be built in slices, each of which has clear value to the users.

Ivar Jacobson - Use-Case 2.0

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Something of Value

you don't need a complete use-case model or even a complete use case before you start to work on the development of the system.  If you have identified the most important use case and understood its basic flow then you have already have something of value you could add to your system.

Ivar Jacobson -  Use-Case 2.0

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Basic Flow

The most important thing is the additive structure of the use-case narrative.  The basic flow is needed if the use case is ever to be successfully completed; this must be implemented first.

Ivar Jacobson Use-Case 2.0

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Focus on Value

When trying to understand how a system will be used it is always important to focus on the value it will provide to its users and other stakeholders.

Ivar Jacobson  - Use-Case 2.0

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Users don't have to be people

Users don't have to be people but can also be other systems, and in some cases both (for example the role of the Called Subscriber might be an answering machine and not a person).

Ivar Jabcobson - Use Case 2.0

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Does a cafe really need instructions?

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A New Order of Things

And it ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things, because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them. Thus it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the opportunity to attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others defend lukewarmly, in such wise that the prince is endangered along with them.

Machiavelli, The Prince

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