Overly optimist forecasts...

...overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of a project are found everywhere.  Amos and I coined the term planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that

• are unrealistically close to the best-case scenarios.
• could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
  

Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow (Chapter 23)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141033576?ie=UTF8&camp=3194&creative=21330&creativeASIN=0141033576&linkCode=shr&tag=theginmum-21&qid=1351590984&sr=8-1

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