Past Performance...

When someone is late on the first of a handful of similar items we've all heard or given the answer, "Yes, I was late this time, but I'll make it up on the rest." This stems from the belief that the knowledge gained from completing the first activity will allow the remaining similar activities to be completed more quickly than called for in the plan.  The real knowledge we should gain in a situation like this is that when an activity takes longer than planned, all similar activities are also likely to take longer than planned. [my italics]

Mike Cohn - Agile Estimation and Planning p15

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